How
much can we trust DNA evidence? The
very term reeks of precision,
science, modernity and expertise.
And those numbers … if I were on a
jury and the prosecuting barrister
turned to us and said, ‘there is
only a one in 200 million chance
that that man in the dock is
innocent’ the very incantation of
such cosmic improbabilities would
be bound to impress.
But perhaps we shouldn’t take DNA
evidence quite so seriously. This
sounds like heresy. Since its
invention, by Alec Jeffreys in the
early 1980s, genetic fingerprinting
has been hailed as the most
brilliant breakthrough in forensics
since actual fingerprinting. But an
interesting investigation by New
Scientist magazine earlier this
month shows that this precision tool
is often blunted by bias, mistakes
and statistical misinterpretations.
This is important. Across the world,
thousands of people have been
convicted of murder, rape and lesser
crimes thanks to 'DNA evidence'
found at the scene – traces of
genetic material derived from skin,
blood or hair that are matched to
genetic fingerprints taken from the
suspects.
And, importantly, thousands of
people have been acquitted; indeed
the very first use of DNA evidence
in an investigation was to prove
that the main suspect in a gruesome
double-murder case could not have
done it. The very mention of 'DNA'
in a courtroom makes jurors and
judges swoon.
Perhaps they should be a little more
level-headed. Looking at real
evidence collected from actual crime
scenes in the US, the study found
that experts were often unable to
agree on how to interpret the
evidence and that the mathematical
'precision' of genetic evidence
melts under close scrutiny.
The problem lies not with the
technique itself (which does indeed
promise extraordinary precision) but
with the way this evidence is
gathered and used by
all-too-fallible policemen and
forensic scientists. For a start,
compared to the early days, far
smaller samples are deemed to be
suitable for forensic analysis.
Since the technique of ‘DNA
amplification’ was invented, its
application to genetic
fingerprinting means that as few as
150 cells – a microscopic amount -
can be enough to provide a sample
for identification.
That sounds good, but it introduces
room for error. “Labs are trying to
results from lower and lower amounts
of DNA,” John Butler, a US scientist
who is trying to improve standards
of DNA testing told NS. And few
samples contain DNA from just one
person. Teasing out which DNA
belongs to whom is a highly skilled
job and worryingly subjective.
One study, carried out in Ohio,
found that in samples containing DNA
from four people more than 70pc were
mistaken for samples containing DNA
from two or three people. This
sounds like an arcane point, but it
could make all the difference in,
say, a gang rape case or a gangland
killing where several people may
have handled the murder weapon, the
body or the ammunition but with only
one having pulled the trigger.
The New Scientist report looked at
the case of an actual gang rape
committed in the state of Georgia,
after which a man named Kerry
Robinson was convicted – partly on
the basis of DNA evidence.
When the evidence plus an actual
sample of DNA taken from Robinson
was presented to 17 experienced
analysts, and a whole range of
‘conclusions’ resulted, ranging from
four of the analysts saying that the
evidence was wholly inconclusive and
12 saying he could actually be
excluded.
The analysts looked at the data
‘blind’, unlike those asked to
testify in the original trial. Just
being told that a particular sample
comes from ‘a suspect’ seems to make
it more likely that experts will
deem it to be incriminating when
asked to compare with samples taken
at the crime scene. Even when
investigators are being wholly
objective, mathematical
misunderstandings may pollute
otherwise irrefutable evidence.
Take what is known as the
‘prosecutor’s fallacy’. If one DNA
profile is held by just one person
in a million, you might think that
if the suspect has this profile then
that is the odds against his
innocence – i.e. one in a million.
But you’d be wrong. In fact, even
assuming you are confining your
search to the UK population (60
million people) there are 60 people,
on average, who could be expected to
provide a perfect match. Thus, all
else being equal, the chances of the
suspect being innocent (measured
purely on DNA evidence) is not one
in a million but 59 in 60. This is
the stuff of Bayesian Probability
which has had a bumpy ride in the
English courts despite being
logically irrefutable (it was an
elementary Bayesian mistake which
led to the wrongful 1998 conviction
of Sally Clark for the murder of her
two boys, largely on the evidence of
paediatrician Roy Meadow).
DNA evidence is pretty good for
establishing whether a person was at
a particular place, but it does not
establish guilt. Say police find a
DNA trace of a known local crook in
a bank which has just been robbed.
This proves no more than he was
there (perhaps completely
innocently) not that he robbed the
bank (similarly, one of the main
arguments against biometric ID cards
is that they merely prove that you
are the person the card says you
are, rather than establishing your
identity, which is something quite
different).
After
Madeleine McCann went missing
in 2007, lurid claims were made in
subsequent weeks that ‘DNA evidence’
garnered from a
rental car showed
that the missing girl’s body had
been transported. This was a classic
example of blinding with science,
the nonsense of these claims being
overshadowed by the bogus
‘scientificality’ of what was being
said. Indeed, such is the almost
magical aura of the very term ‘DNA’
that there is good evidence that
juries, prosecutors and even expert
witnesses are likely to leave their
critical faculties outside the
courtroom whenever this modern
talisman is invoked.
None of this means that genetic
fingerprinting is not a hugely
useful tool. Like literal
fingerprinting, it has helped nail
thousands of villains, and cleared
the names of thousands of innocents.
This technology can be so effective
that it seems like magic. But it is
not magic, and the people who wield
it are not magicians.
So be suspicious, especially if you
are on a jury. None of this is to
say DNA evidence is useless;
compared to the polygraph, for
instance (which is unbelievably
dodgy) in the right hands it is a
useful too. But, again, it is not
magic, and no substitute for old
fashioned detective work.
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